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But has brought nothing but disappointment and underperformance for shareholders. Wang has been in the industry since and has been chief strategist at CICC since Today, he runs a team of eight covering Greater China, with reports written in both English and Chinese.
Growth slowed in because of the trade war with the US and global market friction, but a market correction will provide opportunities for long-term investors, he says. The trade war will continue to be a theme in , with the potential to spill over into other sectors of the economy. The Chinese property sector has cooled off quickly already, without the help of the trade war. The government will also continue to pour money into infrastructure, boosting that sector as well.
Wang sees more investors visiting China and developing a better understanding of a market that just a couple of years ago they regarded as something of a black box. The finance industry has been in turmoil, and India is dealing with a credit problem, something Prasad says he began writing about back in India is one of several Asian countries that is due to hold general elections in , and the outcome will determine the pace of economic reforms.
As for trends in the global economy, India must be prepared for higher interest rates and a rise in oil prices, says Prasad. Oil prices will be very relevant for the Indian stock market in the coming months, as low oil prices help keep domestic retail auto fuel prices low. Any spike would become an election issue, and government-owned upstream oil and gas companies may be forced to contend with oil subsidies.
While other Asian governments are trying to position themselves to benefit from the US-China trade war by attracting manufacturing, India has lost out because of complex labour laws and the challenges of doing business in the country.
Companies are more attracted to southeast Asia for manufacturing, and any movement into India will be slow at best, he adds. But Prasad and his team of 26 analysts have plenty to cover in India. The bank produces research on more than companies, with between two and four analysts for each sector. Because India has been open to outside investors for so long, the market is generally well understood, says Prasad.
He has been an equity analyst for a decade, and a strategist for nearly two years, but even so, proved a tough year for the archipelagic nation. Economic growth slowed and the currency plummeted against the dollar during the year. Valuations still are not cheap, but they are lower than they were at the start of The forward price-to-earnings ratio was in the high teens in early , but it is now in the mid-teens after the repricing, he explains.
Most stocks are trading on lower multiples now relative to early On the plus side, the decline in oil prices in the second half of the year has helped overall sentiment, says Joezer.
There are still plenty of opportunities for investors, and Joezer and his team of 11 analysts covering the Indonesian capital markets are on the hunt for those offering the best value. And the market is not cheap yet, adds Joezer.
Investors have been underweight Indonesia, even though many stocks trade below the five-year valuation. As in several other parts of Asia, Indonesia will hold a general election in Foreign direct investments typically slump right before an election, so the government will be keen to push for more foreign attention as soon as the election is over, says Joezer.
Park has worked in the industry for 18 years, discovering a love of Asian securities after first trying out a career in journalism. She leads a four-person team, filtering the headline noise of geopolitics to understand the changes happening in their home market. Foreign investors have not yet changed their approach to South Korea, but as clearer steps toward a friendly Korean peninsula take shape, valuations will shift, says Park.
Her coverage of the palm oil industry, work she has been doing since , has proved particularly interesting, as demand has shifted over the years, and sustainability has become a recent focus. At this point, CIMB recommends that investors position themselves defensively and invest in stocks that will not be impacted by uncertain government policies.
Even though the new government has been in power for more than six months, analysts and investors have plenty of questions about policy. The high-speed rail project to connect to Singapore has also been deferred. But Dy is relatively optimistic about prospects for the market in As in other parts of Asia, the recent drop in oil prices is creating some more optimism.
Mid-term elections in may also give investors greater clarity on government initiatives such as infrastructure spending. The ability to spot trends and sensitivities across the two countries lends itself to better strategies, says Yau.
Now, trade and budget deficits make headlines every day. Sectors that did not seem to matter in the past have been thrown to the forefront of market worries, and local currencies are being battered.
The theme of uncertainty and the ambiguity of risk premiums will resound into the new year. In the meantime, he continues to favour lower beta names. In his case, the dominance of the tech industry is a bonus. Chen admits that he is quite bearish. If the trade war between the US and China continues, adding more tariffs on goods, it could be a disaster, says Chen. To cut costs, companies generally focus on legacy products, but consumers have little incentive to buy old products.
That does not bode well for the stock market. Chen says his biggest concern at the moment is the macroeconomic environment. Putting the trade war aside, global economies may be at their peak.
A good strategist needs to relay that kind of information to investors without being too academic. Just over four years ago the military seized control of the government and has held power since. After repeated delays, Thailand is finally preparing for a general election in early — and the results will almost certainly have a big impact.
Today, he works with a team of six other people, all of whom have at least a decade of industry experience. His caution is apparent in all of his writing. At this point, rumours are still swirling around the reality of an early election. When Hoang began her career, foreign indirect investment in Vietnam was peaking.
A few years later, stocks bottomed out, and many foreign funds closed. In the last five years, Vietnam has clawed its way back, becoming a manufacturing hub in the region. For instance, the government has encouraged more private companies to develop, in order to promote competition in the market. These private companies tend to be more transparent than the state-owned ones, and foreign investors see them as more attractive, says Hoang.
Many private companies provide financial information in English and are willing to meet with investors. Vietnam is steadily improving in terms of ease of investment, she says, and foreign investors will only find increased opportunities. The growth of manufacturing, particularly for mobile phones, will play a key role in how investable Vietnam is in future as well. Despite the positive changes, it still has a way to go.
She looks for reforms around foreign ownership limits, or the initial public offering process, to encourage more foreign investors in the near future.
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Even after Citic Securities, one of the most powerful financial institutions in China, acquired CLSA in , the research has maintained its reputation. The merger fostered doubts about whether the combination could be a world-beater. The firm only began to research Chinese onshore A-shares in April , covering just a few names. In the last two years, that number has grown to Although the change in ownership led to changes at the top — chief executive Jonathan Slone and chairman Tang Zhenyi both quit CLSA soon after it was acquired — Gould says most employees have stayed at the firm for 10 years. Today, they are very focused on ESG [environmental, social and governance] factors.
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